We measure how much of a firm's work AI can reach and return value on, read from the systems the work already runs on. 1,663 large US public firms, across four census waves.
A research program of the University of South Florida, with Temple University and Florida International University.
Drag the disc to see how a firm's position changes its index
The two lines belong to AI and are the same for every firm. Where the work sits is the firm's own.
Harvest share · the index
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Mirage
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Vault
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Craft
0%
Illustrative shares for the dragged disc. Real firms are below.
01The index, live
Real firms. Real installed technology.
1,663 large US public firms across four census waves, with every technology category they run. Search any firm to see its standing and its map.
Every firm as a dot, grouped by industry. Higher is a higher index. Hover a dot, click to open its profile.Log scale · dark tick = industry median
Computed over the firms observed in each wave. Median, the range from the 20th to the 80th percentile, and the trajectory.2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2025
1Standing. The published index, where the firm sits among industry peers, and how it has moved across census waves.
2Map. Each bubble is one technology category the firm runs. Right means more structured, up means more reachable by AI. Bigger means a larger contribution to the index.
3What it means. Strengths in the Harvest, next moves in the Vault and the Mirage. Every firm has all four.
Work on the map2022 census wave
Harvest · ready for AI todayMirage · reachable, needs structureVault · structured, needs accessCraft · held by people
Preview on the 2022 census wave, the wave the published index is reported on. Waves are 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2025. Medians and ranges are computed over the firms observed in a wave; 14 of the 1,663 firms have no 2022 observation and are shown as not observed rather than as a score. The index shown is the published structure score. The reach axis is preliminary, from product-generation coding, and territory boundaries sit at the category medians. Product names are held for the full release.
02The framework
Why the work, not the talk.
AI acts on processes and data. The index reads how much of a firm's work has been written down, and whether AI can reach it.
What is measured today
The technology, or what firms say about it.
"In the past the man has been first; in the future the system must be first."
Frederick W. Taylor, 1911
The blind spot
AI acts only on work that has been written down.
"If you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?"
Charles Babbage, 1864
Why installed technology
Every system is data plus business logic.
A data layer, and the business logic on top of it. That is every application.
Satya Nadella, paraphrased, 2024
O
The O stands for opportunity: what AI could do here, before anyone decides to try.
Read from the technology a firm already runs. Observed, not asked. Comparable within an industry. Rebuilt with each census wave.
03Method
How the index is read.
Three steps, all observed. No survey, no self-assessment, no vendor claim.
Step 1 · Census
Every technology a firm runs.
22,987 distinct technologies observed at 1,663 large US public firms, from the database to the shop-floor scheduler.
Step 2 · Panel
Each category rated by practitioners.
People who run these systems rate how much structured, available data and process each of 178 categories implies.
Step 3 · Map
The firm placed, and benchmarked.
Each firm's work lands on the map. Its Harvest share is the index, compared with the peers observed in the same wave.
04Four territories
Every firm has all four. The mix is the story.
Generative AI moved the reach line and left the return line in place. Each territory has one move.
Seize
Harvest
Reachable and structured. AI returns value here today. This share is the index.
Structure
Mirage
Reachable, not yet structured. AI produces output here; structure turns it into value.
Unlock
Vault
Structured, awaiting access. The operating core, and the largest prize once opened.
Cultivate
Craft
Held by people. Nothing for AI to hold yet. Structure comes first.
05Why it differs
Every index looks at the same map. One measures the Harvest.
Each index answers a different question. Only one is about the firm's own work, observed.
Where this goes
The number a board asks for before an AI budget is approved.
06The team
Who builds the index.
A University of South Florida program, with Temple University and Florida International University.
MM
Principal investigator
Munir Mandviwalla
Muma College of Business, University of South Florida
DS
Principal investigator
Detmar Straub
Fox School of Business, Temple University
ZZ
Principal investigator
Ziyi (Iggy) Zhao
College of Business, Florida International University
07The practitioner panel
The people who rate the categories run the systems.
Ten practitioners who operate enterprise systems rated all 178 categories, each on two 1 to 7 scales, one for data and one for process. Cronbach alpha across the ten is 0.79 on both scales. No firm was asked about itself.
08Research and support
Behind the map.
2026 · IN PREP
The Two Frontiers: reach, return and the structure of work in the age of generative AI
Working paper. The framework on this page, with the measurement model and validation.
2025 · TALK
From Scientific Management to AI: predicting opportunity and measuring results of the next wave of automation
Research seminar, March 2025.
2025 · TALK
AI Opportunity Index: assessing the organizational opportunity for AI success
Society for Information Management, February 2025.
2026 · IEEE
Modernizing core legacy systems: a framework based on transplantability and tailoring
IEEE Software. The theory of the Vault, and how firms unlock it.
Support
USF Muma College of Business
Temple Fox School of Business
FIU College of Business
Your organization
Get involved.
See where your firm sits, fund the next wave, or sit on the panel that rates the categories. Requests open with the public release.